{"id":863,"date":"2023-08-08T18:29:49","date_gmt":"2023-08-08T18:29:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/?p=863"},"modified":"2023-08-08T18:29:49","modified_gmt":"2023-08-08T18:29:49","slug":"suriye-belirsizliginde-gucler-savasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/?p=863","title":{"rendered":"Suriye belirsizli\u011finde g\u00fc\u00e7ler sava\u015f\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #ff0000;\"><strong>RAUF KARAKO\u00c7AN<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Y\u0131llara varan i\u00e7 sava\u015fla t\u00fckenmi\u015f bir rejim, y\u00fczbinlerce \u00f6l\u00fc-yaral\u0131, milyonlarca g\u00f6\u00e7 etmi\u015f ve geriye par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f toplumsal yap\u0131, k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin doyumsuz s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc i\u015ftahlar\u0131, yay\u0131lmac\u0131 i\u015fgalci emelleriyle \u00fczerinde tepindikleri, gelece\u011fi flu bir Suriye foto\u011fraf\u0131 var kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda.<\/li>\n<li>Suriye sorununun \u2018\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm(\u00fc)\u2019 \u00fczerine epeyce mesai harcayan g\u00fc\u00e7ler laf\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015f duruma geldiler. \u2018\u00d6k\u00fcz d\u00fc\u015ferse b\u0131\u00e7ak \u00e7oktur\u2019 misali her g\u00fc\u00e7 d\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015f-da\u011f\u0131lm\u0131\u015f Suriye\u2019nin mevcut sonucuna g\u00f6re vazife alm\u0131\u015f durumda. Ufukta \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme dair hen\u00fcz bir emare yok, fakat ziyadesiyle sava\u015f ihtimalinin belirtileri vard\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Suriye\u2019yi nal\u0131nc\u0131 keseri gibi kendisine do\u011fru yontan o kadar g\u00fcc\u00fcn aras\u0131nda yontulmayla kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya gelen Suriyeliler, (Arap ve K\u00fcrtler ba\u015fta olmak \u00fczere b\u00fct\u00fcn di\u011fer az\u0131nl\u0131klar) ortak bir ya\u015fam\u0131n gelece\u011fi \u00fczerine idari yap\u0131 kurup, demokratik sistemi in\u015fa edip, demokratik bir ulus yaratmaktan hen\u00fcz istenilen d\u00fczeyde fikirsel birlik ve pratik \u00f6rg\u00fctlenme i\u00e7erisine girmi\u015f de\u011fildir. Kuzey ve Do\u011fu Suriye \u00f6zerk y\u00f6netim alanlar\u0131 fiili bir devrimsel s\u00fcre\u00e7 ya\u015famalar\u0131na ra\u011fmen bir\u00e7ok konuda emekleme durumundan hen\u00fcz s\u0131yr\u0131lm\u0131\u015f de\u011fildir. Geriye kalan halk kesiminde ise siyasi-askeri, iradi, idari bir yap\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131 bu a\u015famadan sonra olas\u0131 de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<li>T\u00fcrk devletinin Suriye politikas\u0131ndaki en temel ama\u00e7 K\u00fcrt d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131\u011f\u0131d\u0131r. B\u00fct\u00fcn d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131n\u0131 bu d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131k \u00fczerinden in\u015fa etmi\u015ftir. Katliamc\u0131d\u0131r, i\u015fgalcidir ve yay\u0131lmac\u0131d\u0131r. Himayesine ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Suriyelilerden sava\u015f\u00e7\u0131 dev\u015firerek Suriye\u2019ye kar\u015f\u0131 kendi \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131 i\u00e7in kullanmaktad\u0131r. D\u0131\u015fardan gelmi\u015f cihat\u00e7\u0131 \u00e7eteleri militarist bir g\u00fc\u00e7 haline getirerek i\u015fgal alanlar\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturmu\u015f ve b\u00f6ylece b\u00f6lge siyasetine y\u00f6n vermeye \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. Suriye \u00fczerinden kurdu\u011fu b\u00fct\u00fcn ili\u015fkiler K\u00fcrt kazan\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131 tasfiye etmeyi ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Elinden gelse \u015eam y\u00f6netimini de devirerek Suriye\u2019yi kendisine ba\u011fl\u0131 bir manda y\u00f6netimi kurmakt\u0131r. K\u00fcrtlerin kazanmalar\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131rarak tebaas\u0131 durumuna getirmek istemektedir.<\/li>\n<li>\u0130ran hakeza benzer bir yol izlemektedir. \u015eia inanc\u0131na mensup kitleleri, t\u0131pk\u0131 Yemen\u2019de, L\u00fcbnan\u2019da, Irak\u2019ta oldu\u011fu gibi Suriye\u2019de de \u00f6rg\u00fctlemekte ve kendisine taban olu\u015fturmakta ve kendi n\u00fcfuz alanlar\u0131 i\u00e7in sava\u015ft\u0131rmaktad\u0131r. Her iki \u00fclkenin emeli de Suriye\u2019de kal\u0131c\u0131 olmakt\u0131r. Biri rejimle birlikte, di\u011feri rejime kar\u015f\u0131 yol alsa da sonu\u00e7 ayn\u0131 yola \u00e7\u0131kmaktad\u0131r. Yani Suriye\u2019nin fiilen pay edilmesi \u00fczerine g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015fm\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr. \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n Suriye politikas\u0131, sadece Suriye ile alakal\u0131 bir durum da de\u011fildir. Daha komplikedir. \u0130ran\u2019dan L\u00fcbnan\u2019a kadar uzanan hatt\u0131n g\u00fcvenceye al\u0131nmas\u0131nda Suriye halkas\u0131n\u0131n kopmamas\u0131n\u0131 sa\u011flamakt\u0131r. Asl\u0131nda i\u00e7inde \u00e7eli\u015fkilerin de yo\u011fun oldu\u011fu bir ili\u015fki bi\u00e7imini s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmektedir. Suriye, T\u00fcrkiye, Rusya ili\u015fkilerinde \u00e7eli\u015fkiler olsa da i\u015fbirli\u011fine muhta\u00e7t\u0131r. Aralar\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkiye z\u0131tlar\u0131n birli\u011fi demek belki daha ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olacakt\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>Rusya\u2019n\u0131n Suriye\u2019deki pozisyonu ABD ve \u0130ran ile g\u00fc\u00e7 m\u00fccadelesine dayanmaktad\u0131r. Rusya-\u0130ran-\u015eam y\u00f6netimi ortak hareket etseler de asl\u0131nda tam da ortak de\u011fillerdir. \u00c7\u0131karlar \u00f6ncelikli, zorunlu bir ortakl\u0131k mevcuttur.\u00a0Rusya ve \u0130ran, gerekti\u011finde \u015eam y\u00f6netimini de kullanmakta ve tavize zorlamaktad\u0131r. Bu ortakl\u0131\u011fa k\u0131smen T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi de dahil etmek gerekir. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc uluslararas\u0131 siyasi konjonkt\u00fcr T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin ikili oynamas\u0131na olanak sunmaktad\u0131r. T\u00fcrkiye, Rojava\u2019da askeri operasyonlar\u0131na, hava sald\u0131r\u0131lar\u0131na ve i\u015fgal hareketlerinde ABD ve Rusya\u2019dan taviz koparmakta, z\u0131mni destek almaktad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<li>ABD\u2019nin Suriye\u2019deki konumlanmas\u0131 siyasi istikrara muhta\u00e7 ve olduk\u00e7a tart\u0131\u015fmal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00c7\u00fcnk\u00fc duruma g\u00f6re de\u011fi\u015fim arz etmektedir. DA\u0130\u015e\u2019e kar\u015f\u0131 m\u00fccadele eksenli K\u00fcrtlerle ili\u015fkili pozisyonunda istikrar yoktur. As\u0131l DA\u0130\u015e olsa da petrol kaynaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00fcvenceye alma, Rusya ve \u0130ran\u2019\u0131n b\u00f6lgedeki varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 dengeleme ve dayanaklar\u0131 durumunda olan \u015eam y\u00f6netimini de\u011fi\u015fime zorlamakt\u0131r. Bu politik duru\u015f \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131na el vermedi\u011fi anda de\u011fi\u015fim g\u00f6stermesi beklenmelidir. K\u00fcrtlere y\u00f6nelik her t\u00fcrl\u00fc sald\u0131r\u0131da sesiz, tarafs\u0131z kalmas\u0131, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019yi kendi taraf\u0131na \u00e7ekmesi i\u00e7in Rojava\u2019da taviz vermesi ola\u011fan bir durumdur. Hatta K\u00fcrtleri tamamen terk ederek T\u00fcrk devletiyle ortak hareket etmesi de dahil son derece g\u00fcvensiz bir \u00e7izgi izlemektedir. Kald\u0131 ki bu t\u00fcrden senaryolara \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 ve istihbarat birimlerince g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fmelerin yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 da bilinmektedir.<\/li>\n<li>Arap birli\u011fi Suriye\u2019nin toprak b\u00fct\u00fcnl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnden yana olsa da \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm konusunda yeterince inisiyatif almaktan uzakt\u0131r. Kendileri a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan risk te\u015fkil eden Suriye meselesini g\u00fcvenlik boyutlar\u0131yla \u00f6ncelemektedir. Suriye\u2019nin m\u00fclteci sorunu, uyu\u015fturucu ticareti, g\u00fcvenlik meselesi; Arap Birli\u011fi \u00fclkeleri i\u00e7in sorun alanlar\u0131d\u0131r. Y\u0131llarca Arap Birli\u011fi \u00fcyeli\u011finin ask\u0131ya al\u0131nmas\u0131 Esad\u2019\u0131n olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir Suriye \u00fczerinden hesaplar yap\u0131lmaktayd\u0131. Bu durum ayn\u0131 zamanda d\u0131\u015f g\u00fc\u00e7lerin bir Arap \u00fclkesinden rol \u00e7almas\u0131na da zemin te\u015fkil etmi\u015f oldu. Suriye\u2019nin birli\u011fe geri d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015f\u00fc sorunlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm\u00fc i\u00e7in yeterli bir yakla\u015f\u0131m de\u011fildir. Suriye\u2019de ge\u00e7ici bir y\u00f6netimin kurulmas\u0131 da dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn se\u00e7eneklerin masada oldu\u011fu bir kabul anlam\u0131na gelmektedir. Esad\u2019\u0131n bu tavizlere nas\u0131l yakla\u015faca\u011f\u0131 da kestirilmi\u015f de\u011fildir.<\/li>\n<li>En \u00e7aresiz durumda olan ise Suriye y\u00f6netimidir. Rusya ve \u0130ran olmadan olamayacak bir Suriye s\u00f6z konusudur. Suriye n\u00fcfusunun %10\u2019nu olu\u015fturan Alevi az\u0131nl\u0131\u011f\u0131n iktidar\u0131 can \u00e7eki\u015fir hale gelmi\u015ftir. \u015eam y\u00f6netimine dayanarak Suriye\u2019de bulunan Rusya ve \u0130ran da dahil b\u00fct\u00fcn g\u00fc\u00e7ler Suriye\u2019den faydalanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yorlar. De\u011fi\u015fime kapal\u0131 \u015eam y\u00f6netimi, Suriye\u2019nin i\u00e7 sava\u015f \u00f6ncesi konumuna geri d\u00f6nmesini arzuluyor.\u00a0\u0130\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7en, karma\u015f\u0131k siyasi \u00e7\u0131kar a\u011flar\u0131n\u0131n i\u00e7inde yol alan Suriye belirsizli\u011finde g\u00fc\u00e7lerin sava\u015f\u0131 var h\u0131z\u0131yla devam etmektedir. Kafalar\u0131 kar\u0131\u015ft\u0131ran bilgi yuma\u011f\u0131 i\u00e7inde Suriye\u2019nin do\u011fru rota tutturmas\u0131 olduk\u00e7a zordur.<\/li>\n<li>Kuzey ve Do\u011fu Suriye \u00d6zerk Y\u00f6netimi b\u0131\u00e7ak s\u0131rt\u0131nda oldu\u011funun fark\u0131na vararak kendisine yol a\u00e7mal\u0131d\u0131r. \u00d6zerk y\u00f6netimin tasfiyesine y\u00f6nelik planlar\u0131n fark\u0131na vararak toplumsal deste\u011fi arkas\u0131na alarak d\u00fc\u015fmanca planlar\u0131 bo\u015fa \u00e7\u0131karabilmelidir. Stratejik ve taktik d\u00fczeyde ili\u015fki ve ittifaklar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irmesi, paradigmas\u0131na uygun y\u00f6ntemler geli\u015ftirmesi elzemdir. \u00d6zg\u00fc\u00e7 esas\u0131na dayanan savunma modeli her t\u00fcrl\u00fc modelden evlad\u0131r.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>RAUF KARAKO\u00c7AN Y\u0131llara varan i\u00e7 sava\u015fla t\u00fckenmi\u015f bir rejim, y\u00fczbinlerce \u00f6l\u00fc-yaral\u0131, milyonlarca g\u00f6\u00e7 etmi\u015f ve geriye par\u00e7alanm\u0131\u015f toplumsal yap\u0131, k\u00fcresel ve b\u00f6lgesel g\u00fc\u00e7lerin doyumsuz s\u00f6m\u00fcr\u00fc i\u015ftahlar\u0131, yay\u0131lmac\u0131 i\u015fgalci emelleriyle \u00fczerinde tepindikleri, gelece\u011fi flu bir Suriye foto\u011fraf\u0131 var kar\u015f\u0131m\u0131zda. Suriye sorununun \u2018\u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcm(\u00fc)\u2019 \u00fczerine epeyce mesai harcayan g\u00fc\u00e7ler laf\u0131 t\u00fcketmi\u015f duruma geldiler. \u2018\u00d6k\u00fcz d\u00fc\u015ferse b\u0131\u00e7ak \u00e7oktur\u2019 misali [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":864,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-863","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tarihsel-toplum"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/863","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=863"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/863\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":865,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/863\/revisions\/865"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/864"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=863"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=863"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/tirki.komunar.net\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=863"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}